Steel Sector Faces Ongoing Strain from Elevated Imports and Trade Imbalance in Q1 2025

South Africa’s Q1 2025 trade data reveal a challenging environment for the domestic steel industry, as increased import volumes continue to displace locally produced materials.

Flat steel product volumes rose by 5.6% year-on-year, from 317,053 tonnes in Q1 2024 to 334,667 tonnes in Q1 2025. While this uptick suggests improving demand conditions, it also reflects a growing share of imported steel products in the local market.

The main contributors to flat product imports were:

• Hot-dipped galvanised sheet – 28%
• Hot-rolled coil – 24%
• Coated products – 15%
• Cold-rolled products – 13%

South African producers have the installed capacity and technical know-how to meet domestic demand across these product lines. However, the influx of low-priced imports is placing local manufacturers under increasing strain. Fair competition and trade policy enforcement are urgently needed to ensure the sustainability of the local steel value chain.

A particularly sharp rise was recorded in semi-finished (intermediate) steel imports, which surged from 1,089 tonnes in Q1 2024 to 45,135 tonnes in Q1 2025, driven mainly by billet imports. This volume spike raises concern over potential dumping or pricing anomalies that may be distorting market dynamics.

On the other hand, long steel product imports declined by 34.9%, falling from 36,541 tonnes to 23,785 tonnes. However, this aggregate decline masks selective increases in specific product categories such as cold-formed sections/bars, other bars and rods, and reinforcing bars—indicating continued pressure on strategic local production lines.

Overall, South Africa posted a R2.1 billion trade deficit in Q1 2025. Exports dropped 19.4% year-on-year to R3.8 billion, while imports, though 4.3% lower in value at R5.9 billion, grew 13.8% in volume compared to Q1 2024.